This month’s note is a quick, plain-English look at what moved markets, what the Fed just did with rates, and a few smart planning moves to consider before year-end. I also included a couple of practical reminders, like Medicare’s open enrollment window and a short checklist for Q4 taxes and contributions. As always, skim what’s useful and skip the rest.
The Good Stuff
1. A real rate cut
The Fed trimmed policy rates at its September meeting. The implementation note shows the interest paid on reserves moved to 4.15% effective Sept 18. Translation: borrowing costs are easing at the margin, and the door is open to more data-dependent moves.
2. Markets finished August in the green
August closed positive across major U.S. indexes. The S&P 500 was up ~1.9% for the month and nearly 10% year-to-date at that point. The Dow also gained 3.2% in August.
3. Yields cooled a bit
The 10-year Treasury ended August around 4.23%, a notch lower than mid-month. If you’re eyeing a refi or laddering Treasuries/CDs, this matters.
4. Medicare Open Enrollment is almost here
Mark your calendar: Oct 15–Dec 7 is the annual window to review Advantage and Part D plans. If you or a parent use Medicare, this is the time to compare coverage and pharmacy networks.
5. Football is back
The NFL’s season opener and the league’s first-ever Dublin game pulled big audiences, which tends to boost travel and hospitality in host cities. Fun trivia for your next flight.
What’s New and Worth Watching
1. Government shutdown
A federal shutdown began Oct 1. Beyond the politics, the practical issue for markets is delayed data releases the Fed watches. The White House estimates a shutdown could shave about $15B of GDP per week if it drags on. We will keep an eye on timing for jobs and inflation reports.
2. Fed path from here
Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks flagged rising risks to employment even as inflation cools. That balancing act is why the Fed just eased and why future moves will lean on incoming data.
3. Inflation check
August CPI ran 2.9% year over year with core at 3.1%. Cooler than last year, still above target, and consistent with a gradual-easing stance.
Planning Ideas for October
✔ Year-end retirement sweep: If you want to hit 401(k)/403(b) targets before Dec 31, you can raise your deferral rate now and use your brokerage cash to cover living expenses temporarily.
✔ Roth conversions: With a cut in place and markets near highs, partial conversions can still make sense if your 2025 bracket has room.
✔ Tax to-dos: Check Q4 estimated taxes, harvest gains or losses as needed, and review ESPP/RSU withholding ahead of bonuses.
✔ Cash and ladders: Lock in portions of cash at staggered maturities. If you are anticipating a mortgage refi, start collecting docs so you can move fast if rates dip.
✔ Medicare review: We can compare 2025 formularies and provider networks during Open Enrollment.
Portfolio Angle
✔ Stay diversified: August’s gains were broad, not just mega-cap tech. If you are concentrated, we can use rallies to trim toward targets without big tax bites.
✔ Bonds back in the conversation: With the 10-year hovering a bit above 4%, high-quality fixed income can pull its weight again for income and ballast.
✔ Opportunistic cash: Keep some dry powder for volatility around shutdown headlines and data timing.